“There’s no danger of us being overheard, I suppose?”

“Goodness, man, is it as serious as that? Wait a minute.”

Ferguson lifted the phone.

“Amy, will you please see that I’m not interrupted — no, no phone calls — well, perhaps for an hour, perhaps two, I don’t know.”

Quietly and logically Herrick then explained the situation. When Ferguson had spent some time looking at the photographs, Herrick said:

“You see the predicament. If we announce the business and we turn out to be wrong, then we shall look awful fools. If we spend a month testing all the details and it turns out that we are right, then we should be blamed for procrastination and delay.”

“You certainly would, like an old hen sitting on a bad egg.”

“Well, James, I thought you have had a great deal of experience in dealing with people. I felt you were someone I could turn to for advice. What do you suggest I should do?”

Ferguson was silent for a little while. Then he said:

“I can see that this may turn out to be a grave matter. And I don’t like taking grave decisions any more than you do, Dick, certainly not on the spur of the moment. What I suggest is this. Go back to your hotel and sleep through the afternoon — I don’t expect you had much sleep last night. We can meet again for an early dinner, and by then I’ll have had an opportunity to think things over. I’ll try to reach some conclusion.”

Ferguson was as good as his word. When he and Herrick had started their evening meal, in a quiet restaurant of his choice, Ferguson began:

“I think I’ve got things sorted out fairly well. It doesn’t seem to me to make sense wasting another month in making sure of your position. The case seems to be very sound as it is, and you can never be quite certain — it would be a matter of converting a ninety-nine per cent certainty into a ninety-nine point nine per cent certainty.